These days, the focus is on a prisoner exchange deal that could lead to a temporary ceasefire, possibly involving the repositioning of Israeli occupation forces in Gaza and allowing for more humanitarian aid to reach the besieged and displaced citizens across the Strip.
Despite Hamas’s demand that a complete ceasefire is a condition for starting negotiations on the release of Israeli detainees in Gaza, it seems that the situation is heading towards a limited deal involving 40-50 Israeli detainees in exchange for a truce that could last up to a month. This may indicate a shift in the position previously announced by Hamas, showing a desire to take a breather and reorganize, especially as the Israeli government has no intention of stopping the war on Gaza.
The U.S. administration and mediators are eager to reach any humanitarian truce and are pushing for a quick humanitarian ceasefire. There is also pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government from within, particularly from the families of the prisoners and detainees, as well as from broad sectors of the Israeli public, to bring back all the detainees from Gaza as quickly as possible, given the dangers they face due to Israeli bombardment and the ground invasion, where some have been killed by Israeli forces.
The Israeli government is willing to engage in a new deal as long as it does not oblige Israel to stop the war permanently. No matter how long the truce lasts, it will not change the situation in a meaningful way and is nothing more than a temporary respite. Gaza’s basic needs will not be met in a month or even a year. The crucial issue for the people is to put an end to the killing, destruction, starvation, and catastrophic tragedy.
It is noteworthy that the initiatives related to a ceasefire and the release of prisoners and detainees, even if within the framework of an “all-for-all” exchange, talk about ending the war, the withdrawal of the Israeli army, and at best, the formation of a technocratic government to oversee reconstruction and manage the situation in Gaza and the West Bank.
Even if Israel accepted this idea, which Netanyahu’s government is unlikely to do, since they want to continue the war even in a less intense third phase for months, possibly over a year, there would be no political solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. There is a difference between calls for a political settlement based on the two-state solution and the reality produced by the war on both the Palestinian and Israeli fronts.
In Israel, there will be no serious discussion about the post-war phase until Netanyahu feels he has reached the finish line. With a government reliant primarily on the support of the far-right Religious Zionist Party, led by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, the idea of a two-state solution is off the table. If the war ends in the coming months, we will likely have to wait until Netanyahu’s government falls, either through early elections under public pressure or at the end of its term in three years.
It is hard to envision serious American and international pressure on Israel to impose a two-state solution, given all past experiences. On the Palestinian side, there is significant incapacity and perhaps no desire to unify Palestinian leadership under the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) on a single program that could pave the way for successful political efforts to achieve the goal of an independent Palestinian state.
Hamas is not ready to relinquish control of Gaza, nor is the Palestinian leadership willing to unite all factions under the PLO, including moving towards general presidential and parliamentary elections. Practically, there are no serious national dialogues about the post-war phase, as if everyone is waiting to see what the outcome will be. Our situation does not help convince the influential powers in the world that we are ready for a solution.
The real fear is that we may wake up to the catastrophic results of the war, with this enormous number of casualties and unbearable destruction that will require years of reconstruction and long-term rebuilding and repair of all aspects of life. A wide migration of citizens from Gaza is expected, as they will not be able to live without the minimum conditions of human life for years, waiting for a home or a decent living.
Meanwhile, we may declare a moral victory with no political outcome, as happened in previous wars, with a significant and essential difference in the number of casualties, losses, and damage that cannot be compensated. Unfortunately, there is no indication that everyone understands the extent of the damage and destruction that has befallen Palestinian society, nor are there any signs of leadership that differs from the usual routine, which has normalized everything to the point that we have become accustomed to the number of martyrs and wounded, the extent of the damage, and the calls for international aid.
Everything proceeds monotonously, as if we are not in an unprecedented catastrophic war. We are waiting for the powerless international community to intervene to save us while we do not take the minimum required steps to help ourselves and prevent a greater disaster that could destroy everything we have achieved through decades of struggle and sacrifice.
Author: Ashraf Ajrami